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| seats_for_election = 159 of 160 seats in [[Dáil Éireann]]<ref group="n">Presuming the Constituency Commission's recommendations are enacted before the next election. Seats won at the last election were on a Dáil with 158 seats.</ref> |
| seats_for_election = 159 of 160 seats in [[Dáil Éireann]]<ref group="n">Presuming the Constituency Commission's recommendations are enacted before the next election. Seats won at the last election were on a Dáil with 158 seats.</ref> |
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| majority_seats = 80<ref group="n">{{cite web|https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0227/770852-key-election-questions-answered/|title=Who won? What's an exit poll? What's a hung Dáil?|publisher=RTÉ|date=27 February 2016|accessdate=16 September 2017}}</ref> |
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| majority_seats = 81<ref group="n">Given that the [[Ceann Comhairle]] does not take part in debates nor vote except in the event of a tie, the number of TDs needed for a majority is in practice slightly lower, with a practical majority requiring at least 80 TDs.</ref> |
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| opinion_polls = Next Irish general election#Opinion polls |
| opinion_polls = Next Irish general election#Opinion polls |
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| election_date = On or before 12 April 2021 |
| election_date = On or before 12 April 2021 |
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The next Irish general election will be held in Ireland on or before Monday, 12 April 2021. The election will be called following the dissolution of the 32nd Dáil by the President, at the request of the Taoiseach. At stake will be 159 of 160 seats in Dáil Éireann, the Ceann Comhairle being re-elected automatically unless he opts to retire from the Dáil.
Electoral system
The 160 members of the Dáil will be elected in 39 multi-member constituencies, each with between three and five seats, using the single transferable vote system in which voters rank candidates on their ballot papers. When the ballot papers are counted, an electoral quota is created by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one.
Any candidate receiving a number of votes exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the second or subsequent preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is given to other candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers.
This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats[1] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected at that point.
Constituency Commission 2016–17
A Constituency Commission was convened in July 2016 under the provisions of the Electoral Act 1997,[2] under the Chairpersonship of Judge Robert Haughton to redraw constituency boundaries after publication of initial population data from Census 2016.[3]
The Commission has some discretion but is constitutionally bound to allow no more than a 30,000 population ratio per elected member and is by convention constrained not to breach 'traditional' county boundaries save in rare cases, even if this leads to slight over-representation. The Commission report was released on 27 June 2017. It recommends an increase in the number of TDs from 158 to 160.[4][5]
Background
Retiring incumbents
The following members of the 32nd Dáil have announced that they will not be seeking re-election:
Constituency | Departing TD | Party | |
---|---|---|---|
Limerick City | Michael Noonan[6] | style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | | Fine Gael |
Latest possible date
Section 33 of the Electoral Act, 1992, establishes that the same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting,[7] with an election required to be held between seventeen and twenty-five days after the writs for the election are issued.[8] This does not account for excluded days, which under Section 2 of the Electoral Act refer to a Sunday, Good Friday or a day which is declared to be a public holiday.[9] This means that the general election cannot be held later than Monday, 12 April 2021.
Opinion polls
Last date of polling |
Polling firm/Commissioner/Link | Sample size |
FG | FF | SF | Lab | S-PBP | SD | GP | RI | IA | O/I |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
style="background:Template:Fine Gael/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Anti-Austerity Alliance–People Before Profit/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Social Democrats (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Green Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Renua Ireland/meta/color;"| | style="background:Template:Independents/meta/color;"| | ||||
21 July 2017 | Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[p 1][p 2] | 956 | 30 | 29 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | [nb 2] | 5 | 7 |
11 July 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 3][p 4] | 923 | 29 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
5 July 2017 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 5][p 6] | 1,000 | 27 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
14 June 2017 | Leo Varadkar succeeds Enda Kenny as Taoiseach | |||||||||||
10 June 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 7][p 8] | 1,004 | 29 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
25 May 2017 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 9][p 10] | 1,004 | 29 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
13 May 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 11] | 945 | 28 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
28 April 2017 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 12] | 1,004 | 24 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
11 April 2017 | Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 13] | 937 | 29 | 28 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
24 March 2017 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 14] | 1,004 | 24 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
8 March 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 15] | 934 | 22 | 28 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
23 February 2017 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 16][p 17] | 1,004 | 24 | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
16 February 2017 | Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[p 18][p 19] | 960 | 25 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | [nb 2] | 5 | 4 |
8 February 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 20] | 955 | 21 | 32 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
26 January 2017 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 21][p 22] | 1,004 | 24 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
21 January 2017 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 23] | 921 | 23 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
13 December 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 24] | 924 | 26 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
6 December 2016 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 25][p 26] | 1,200 | 27 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | [nb 3] | 2 | 10 |
25 November 2016 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 27][p 28] | 1,000 | 25 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
9 November 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 29] | 924 | 28 | 30 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
27 October 2016 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 30][p 31] | 1,002 | 25 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
23 October 2016[nb 4] | Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[p 32][p 33] | 942 | 29 | 27 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | [nb 2] | 5 | 3 |
12 October 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 34] | 917 | 26 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
4 October 2016 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 35][p 36] | 1,200 | 26 | 26 | 19 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | [nb 3] | [nb 5] | 15 |
22 September 2016 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 37][p 38] | 1,002 | 25 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
14 September 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 39] | 911 | 23 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
27 July 2016 | Red C/Paddy Power[p 40][p 41] | 1,000 | 27 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
13 July 2016 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 42][p 43] | 1,004 | 26 | 29 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
13 July 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 44] | 909 | 25 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
7 July 2016 | Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 45][p 46] | 1,200 | 24 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | [nb 3] | 2 | 11 |
29 June 2016 | Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[p 47][p 48] | 1,000 | 30 | 26 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | [nb 3] | [nb 5] | 8 |
15 June 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 49] | 913 | 25 | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
26 May 2016 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 50] | 1,004 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
11 May 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 51][p 52] | 898 | 26 | 27 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
11 May 2016 | Red C/Paddy Power[p 53][p 54] | 1,015 | 27 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
13 April 2016 | Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 55][p 56] | 926 | 23 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
10 March 2016 | Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 57][p 58] | 1,006 | 27 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
26 February 2016 | General election | 25.5 | 24.3 | 13.8 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 13.7 |
Footnotes
- ^ Gerry Adams became National President of Sinn Féin on 13 November 1983, but only became Parliamentary Leader of Sinn Féin once elected to the Dáil for the first time in February 2011. Prior to that the parliamentary leader in the Dáil, 1997–2011 was Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.
- ^ a b c Renua is not mentioned.
- ^ a b c d Renua is featured in Others.
- ^ Publication date - last date of polling not provided.
- ^ a b The poll makes no distinction between different groupings of Independents, the Independent Alliance is included in the figure for Others.
- ^ Presuming the Constituency Commission's recommendations are enacted before the next election. Seats won at the last election were on a Dáil with 158 seats.
- ^ "Who won? What's an exit poll? What's a hung Dáil?". RTÉ. 27 February 2016.
{{cite web}}
:|access-date=
requires|url=
(help); Missing or empty|url=
(help); Text "https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0227/770852-key-election-questions-answered/" ignored (help) - ^ The 50 seats for Fine Gael includes the outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seán Barrett, elected in 2011 for Fine Gael, who was returned automatically.
- ^ Seán Ó Fearghaíl was elected as Ceann Comhairle, and is no longer counted as a Fianna Fáil TD.
Opinion poll sources
- ^ "'Support for Fine Gael rises, opinion poll suggests'". RTÉ. 23 July 2017. Retrieved 23 July 2017.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "National Opinion Poll:July 2017" (PDF). Sunday Independent/Millward Brown. 23 July 2017. Retrieved 3 August 2017.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Micheál Martin is well ahead of Leo Varadkar in the satisfaction ratings". 16 July 2017. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
- ^ McShane, Ian (16 June 2017). "General Election Opinion Poll - July 2017" (PDF). Retrieved 17 July 2017.
- ^ "Leo fails to get leadership bounce".
- ^ Colwell, Richard (9 July 2017). "General Election Opinion Poll - July 17" (PDF). Retrieved 11 July 2017.
- ^ "Increase in support for Fine Gael, opinion poll suggests". 10 June 2017. Retrieved 5 July 2017.
- ^ McShane, Ian (10 June 2017). "General Election Opinion Poll - June 2017" (PDF). Retrieved 5 July 2017.
- ^ "Increase in support for Fine Gael, opinion poll suggests". 27 May 2017. Retrieved 5 July 2017.
- ^ "General Election Opinion Poll - May 17" (PDF). 28 May 2017. Retrieved 5 July 2017.
- ^ "Fine Gael remains Ireland's most popular party". Retrieved 29 May 2017.
{{cite web}}
: Unknown parameter|deadurl=
ignored (|url-status=
suggested) (help) - ^ "Fianna Fáil extends lead over Fine Gael in latest poll".
- ^ "Fine Gael back on top in new opinion poll".
- ^ "Polling Trends Suggest General Election Unlikely" (PDF). Red C/The Sunday Business Post.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ McShane, Ian (12 March 2017). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes March 2017 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 13 March 2017.
- ^ Brennan, Michael (25 February 2017). "Support for SF surges to new high - Red C poll". "The Sunday Business Post". Retrieved 5 March 2017.
- ^ "Is Fine Gael Leadership Battle All Over or All to Play For?" (PDF). Red C/The Sunday Business Post. 25 February 2017. Retrieved 5 March 2017.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "After the ugliest week in years, FF re-emerges as poster boy'". Sunday Independent. 19 February 2017. Retrieved 24 February 2017.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "National Opinion Poll: February 2017" (PDF). Sunday Independent/Millward Brown. 19 February 2017. Retrieved 24 February 2017.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ McShane, Ian (12 February 2017). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes February 2017 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 13 February 2017.
- ^ Brennan, Michael (28 January 2017). "FF big winner as government support drops". "The Sunday Business Post". Retrieved 28 January 2017.
- ^ "Government Under Pressure as Fianna Fail Make Gains" (PDF). Red C/The Sunday Business Post. 26 January 2017. Retrieved 7 February 2017.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ McShane, Ian (21 January 2017). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes January 2017 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 22 January 2017.
- ^ McShane, Ian (18 December 2016). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes December 2016 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 18 December 2016.
- ^ "Fianna Fáil pulls ahead of Fine Gael to become most popular party". The Irish Times. 8 December 2016. Retrieved 8 December 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Irish Times Poll Portal". The Irish Times. 8 December 2016. Retrieved 8 December 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "The Difficult Balancing Act for Fianna Fáil – Nov 16 Poll" (PDF). "RED C". Retrieved 29 November 2016.
- ^ "The Difficult Balancing Act for Fianna Fáil – Nov 16 Poll" (PDF). "RED C". Retrieved 29 November 2016.
- ^ McShane, Ian (13 November 2016). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes November 2016 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 14 November 2016.
- ^ "AAA-PBP surges to record high". The Sunday Business Post. 30 October 2016. Retrieved 29 October 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Are AAA-PBP gains more than just a one off?" (PDF). Red C/The Sunday Business Post. 23 October 2016. Retrieved 11 November 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Exclusive poll: Fine Gael sees slip in support despite 'giveaway Budget'". Sunday Independent. 23 October 2016. Retrieved 23 October 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "National Opinion Poll: October 2016" (PDF). Sunday Independent/Millward Brown. 23 October 2016. Retrieved 11 November 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ McShane, Ian (12 October 2016). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes October 2016 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 29 October 2016.
- ^ "Fianna Fáil level with Fine Gael after Seven Point drop in support". The Irish Times. 6 October 2016. Retrieved 6 October 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Irish Times Poll Portal". The Irish Times. 6 October 2016. Retrieved 6 October 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "FF sees support slip for first time since election". The Sunday Business Post. 25 September 2016. Retrieved 25 September 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "No Momentum for Change Helps Govt. Survival Propects" (PDF). Red C/The Sunday Business Post. 25 September 2016. Retrieved 25 September 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ McShane, Ian (18 September 2016). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes September 2016 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 18 September 2016.
- ^ "Four out of 10 people believe Taoiseach should 'quit now' - new Red C poll". Irish Independent. 29 July 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.
{{cite news}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Fianna Fáil Most Popular Party" (PDF). Paddy Power. 29 July 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Surge in FF support ratchets up pressure on Kenny". The Sunday Business Post. 17 July 2016. Retrieved 17 July 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "General Election Opinion Poll" (PDF). The Sunday Business Post. 17 July 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ McShane, Ian (19 July 2016). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes July 2016 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 19 July 2016.
- ^ "Massive surge in support for Fianna Fáil, poll shows". The Irish Times. 7 July 2016. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Irish Times Poll Portal". The Irish Times. 6 October 2016. Retrieved 6 October 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Poll exclusive: Public confidence in Independents crashes". Sunday Independent. 3 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "National Opinion Poll: June 2016" (PDF). Sunday Independent/Millward Brown. 3 July 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 11 July 2016. Retrieved 29 May 2017.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help); Unknown parameter|deadurl=
ignored (|url-status=
suggested) (help) - ^ McShane, Ian (15 June 2016). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes June 2016 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 16 October 2016.
- ^ "General Election Opinion Poll" (PDF). The Sunday Business Post. 29 May 2016. Retrieved 1 June 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Fianna Fáil has overtaken Fine Gael in popularity". The Journal. 14 May 2016. Retrieved 15 May 2016.
{{cite news}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ McShane, Ian (May 2016). "Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes May 2016 Opinion Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 15 May 2016.
- ^ "Paddy Power Red C poll: Voters want Varadkar to replace Kenny". Irish Independent. 13 May 2016. Retrieved 14 May 2016.
{{cite news}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "General Election Opinion Poll" (PDF). Paddy Power. 13 May 2016. Retrieved 15 May 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Fianna Fáil overtakes Fine Gael in latest opinion poll". The Sunday Times. 16 April 2016. Retrieved 16 April 2016.
{{cite news}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "General Election Opinion Poll" (PDF). The Sunday Times. 16 April 2016. Retrieved 15 May 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "Another general election would produce no major gains for FF or FG". The Sunday Business Post. 12 March 2016. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
{{cite news}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help) - ^ "General Election Opinion Poll" (PDF). The Sunday Business Post. 12 March 2016. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
{{cite web}}
: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=
(help)
References
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ "Constituency Commission Established 14 July 2016". Retrieved 17 July 2016.
- ^ "Constituency Commission Website".
- ^ "Introduction and summary of recommendations" (PDF). Constituency Commission 2011. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
- ^ "Dáil constituencies where no change is recommended" (PDF). Constituency Commission 2011. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
- ^ "Michael Noonan to step down as Finance Minister - and won't run again for Dail". Irish Independent. 18 May 2017.
- ^ "Electoral Act, 1992; Part VI. Duration and Membership of Dáil". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Act, 1992; Part XVII. The Poll". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 13 March 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Act, 1992; Part I. General". irishstatutebook.ie. Retrieved 13 March 2016.