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Elections in Kentucky |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Rand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Charles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.
Paul was first elected in 2010 with 55.7% of the vote, filling the seat of retiring Jim Bunning, then re-elected in 2016 with 57.3% of the vote. Paul ran for a third term.[1] Booker is a former state representative and a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in 2020. The election was called for Paul shortly after polls closed in the state.[2]
This was the biggest landslide victory for a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky since Mitch McConnell's win in 2002.
Background
Although Rand Paul supports a Constitutional amendment limiting Senators to two terms, he said, "I'm not in favor of term limits for some and not others. So I'm not in favor of people self-imposing term limits. I'm a co-sponsor of the constitutional amendment, but I will run again in 2022."[1] Kentucky held its primary election on May 17.[3]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Arnold Blankenship, retiree[5]
- Valerie Frederick[5]
- Paul V. Hamilton, economics professor[6]
- John Schiess, perennial candidate[5]
- Tami Stanfield, former sales executive[5]
Endorsements
- Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[7]
- Statewide officials
- Allison Ball, Kentucky State Treasurer (2016–present)[8]
- Organizations
Results
![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/70/2022_United_States_Senate_Republican_primary_election_in_Kentucky_results_map_by_county.svg/250px-2022_United_States_Senate_Republican_primary_election_in_Kentucky_results_map_by_county.svg.png)
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rand Paul (incumbent) | 333,051 | 86.35% | |
Republican | Valerie Frederick | 14,018 | 3.63% | |
Republican | Paul V. Hamilton | 13,473 | 3.49% | |
Republican | Arnold Blankenship | 10,092 | 2.62% | |
Republican | Tami Stanfield | 9,526 | 2.47% | |
Republican | John Schiess | 5,538 | 1.44% | |
Total votes | 385,698 | 100.0% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Charles Booker, former state representative (2019–2021) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[13]
Eliminated in primary
- Joshua Blanton Sr., Army veteran[14]
- Ruth Gao, educator and activist[15]
- John Merrill, chemist and Navy veteran[5]
Declined
- Rocky Adkins, senior advisor to Governor Andy Beshear, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives, and candidate for governor in 2019[16]
- Jim Gray, Kentucky Secretary of Transportation, former mayor of Lexington, KY, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016 and candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018[17]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)[18]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[19]
- U.S. Representatives
- John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative from Kentucky's 3rd congressional district (2007–2023)[20]
- Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America – Louisville Chapter[21]
- IUE-CWA – Louisville Chapter[21]
- Kentucky AFL–CIO[22]
- National Education Association[23]
- Organizations
- Brand New Congress[24]
- Democracy for America[25]
- Indivisible[26]
- League of Conservation Voters[27]
- March On[28]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[29]
- Sunrise Movement[30]
- Working Families Party[31]
- Individuals
Results
![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/2022_United_States_Senate_Democratic_primary_election_in_Kentucky_results_map_by_county.svg/250px-2022_United_States_Senate_Democratic_primary_election_in_Kentucky_results_map_by_county.svg.png)
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 40–50%
- 60–70%
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Charles Booker | 214,245 | 73.29% | |
Democratic | Joshua Blanton Sr. | 30,980 | 10.60% | |
Democratic | John Merrill | 28,931 | 9.90% | |
Democratic | Ruth Gao | 18,154 | 6.21% | |
Total votes | 292,310 | 100.0% |
General election
Although Paul had initially pledged to serve only one term,[33] he later reversed this stance and ran for re-election.[34] In both 2010 and 2016, he faced tight races, even as these years were generally unfavorable for the Democratic Party and Kentucky's conservative partisan lean. Paul had gained a reputation as one of the most libertarian senators and often breaks with his party despite still holding conservative views on most issues.[35][36]
Following a narrow primary defeat to Amy McGrath in the 2020 Kentucky Senate Democratic primaries, State Representative Charles Booker announced his intention to run again, this time against Paul.[37] Booker positioned himself as a progressive populist, advocating for abortion rights, Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and a Green New Deal.[38] He aimed to resonate with traditional Democratic voters in the urban centers of Louisville and Lexington, while also reaching out to ancestral Democrats in Kentucky's Appalachian region.[39]
An early February poll showed Paul leading by only a few points against a generic Democrat.[40] However, a later poll revealed Paul had a substantial lead over Booker.[41] In October, a debate was scheduled to include both Paul and Booker, but Paul did not respond to the invitation, resulting in Booker debating alone.[42]
Paul went on to easily win re-election, improving his 2016 performance by approximately 9 percentage points. However, due to lower voter turnout, he underperformed compared to Trump's 2020 performance in the state by 2 points and received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote.
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[43] | Solid R | November 19, 2021 |
Inside Elections[44] | Solid R | January 7, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Safe R | November 3, 2021 |
Politico[46] | Solid R | October 18, 2022 |
RCP[47] | Safe R | January 10, 2022 |
Fox News[48] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ[49] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
538[50] | Solid R | June 30, 2022 |
The Economist[51] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
- Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[7]
- U.S. Senators
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[52]
- U.S. Representatives
- Andy Barr, U.S. Representative from Kentucky's 6th congressional district (2013–present)[53]
- Statewide officials
- Allison Ball, Kentucky State Treasurer (2016–present)[8]
- Ryan Quarles, Agriculture Commissioner of Kentucky (2016–present)[54]
- Sheriffs
- Tracy Beatty, sheriff of Ohio County[55]
- Ed Brady, former sheriff of Ohio County[55]
- Keith Cain, former sheriff of Daviess County (Democratic)[55]
- David Crafton, sheriff of Henderson County (Democratic)[55]
- Ken Frizzell, sheriff of McLean County[55]
- Barry Smith, sheriff of Daviess County[55]
- Organizations
- Americans for Legal Immigration[56]
- Campaign for Working Families[56]
- Citizens Against Government Waste[57]
- Club for Growth[9]
- FreedomWorks[10]
- Huck PAC[56]
- Kentucky Fraternal Order of Police[58]
- Kentucky Right to Life[56]
- National Federation of Independent Business - Kentucky chapter[56]
- National Right to Life Committee[56]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[59][56]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[56]
- Turning Point Action[11]
- U.S. Senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present)[60]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)[18]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present)[19]
- U.S. Representatives
- John Yarmuth, U.S. Representative from Kentucky's 3rd congressional district (2007–2023)[20]
- Statewide officials
- Jerry Abramson, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky (2011–2014)[61]
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[61]
- Martha Layne Collins, former governor of Kentucky (1983–1987)[61]
- Daniel Mongiardo, former lieutenant governor of Kentucky (2007–2011)[61]
- Paul E. Patton, former governor of Kentucky (1995–2003)[61]
- Newspapers
- Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America – Louisville Chapter[21]
- IUE-CWA – Louisville Chapter[21]
- Kentucky AFL–CIO[22]
- National Association of Social Workers[63]
- National Education Association[23]
- United Mine Workers of America[63]
- Organizations
- Brand New Congress[24]
- Common Defense[63]
- Democracy for America[25]
- End Citizens United[63]
- Everytown for Gun Safety[63]
- Indivisible[26]
- League of Conservation Voters[27]
- LegalizeKY [64]
- March On[28]
- MoveOn[63]
- NARAL Pro-Choice America[65]
- New Power PAC[63]
- Newtown Action Alliance[63]
- Peace Action[63]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[29]
- Progressive Turnout Project[63]
- Sierra Club[66]
- Sunrise Movement[30]
- Working Families Party[31]
- Individuals
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Rand Paul (R) |
Charles Booker (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon | January 19–22, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 39% | 6% |
- Rand Paul vs. generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Rand Paul (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon | February 1–4, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rand Paul (incumbent) | 913,326 | 61.80% | +4.53% | |
Democratic | Charles Booker | 564,311 | 38.19% | −4.54% | |
Write-in | 193 | 0.01% | +0.01% | ||
Total votes | 1,477,830 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Elliott (largest city: Sandy Hook)
- Marion (largest city: Lebanon)
- Nicholas (largest city: Carlisle)
- Rowan (largest city: Morehead)
By congressional district
Paul won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[68]
District | Paul | Booker | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 71% | 29% | James Comer |
2nd | 68% | 32% | Brett Guthrie |
3rd | 40% | 60% | John Yarmuth (117th Congress) |
Morgan McGarvey (118th Congress) | |||
4th | 66% | 34% | Thomas Massie |
5th | 75% | 25% | Hal Rogers |
6th | 54% | 46% | Andy Barr |
See also
Notes
References
- ^ a b c Dean, Kelly (February 25, 2021). "Sen. Rand Paul discusses upcoming plans for re-election 2022". WBKO. Archived from the original on February 27, 2021. Retrieved March 6, 2021.
- ^ "Rand Paul reelected for third term". WKYT. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
- ^ WLKY Digital Team (May 10, 2022). "Voter guide: Kentucky primary election 2022". Wlky.com. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
- ^ "Sen. Rand Paul announces he has filed for re-election". WBKO. January 5, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e "Election Candidate Filings". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
- ^ "Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings". Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ a b Kobin, Bill (April 9, 2021). "Donald Trump endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul for 2022 reelection". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
- ^ a b "I was proud to speak at Senator @RandPaul's campaign kickoff event in Oldham County tonight! Let's Stand with Rand & help send a Republican Senate Majority to D.C. this year". Twitter. April 30, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b "Club for Growth PAC Endorsed Candidates". Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ a b "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Rand Paul in the Kentucky U.S. Senate Race". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. August 25, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ a b "Turning Point Action". Turning Point Action - Endorsements. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- ^ a b "May 17, 2022 Official 2022 Primary Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of Kentucky. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
- ^ "It's official: Charles Booker will run for Senate again, this time against Rand Paul". WLKY. July 1, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
- ^ Smith, Lawrence (June 30, 2021). "Democrats begin lining up for right to challenge Sen. Rand Paul". WDRB. Retrieved July 31, 2021.
- ^ "Ruth Gao announces U.S. Senate run in Kentucky, aims to become 'first millennial woman Senator'". WLEX-TV. June 30, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
- ^ "Political Notebook: Could Rocky Adkins be Kentucky's Joe Manchin in 2022 Senate race?". Lexington Herald-Leader. April 15, 2021. Retrieved April 21, 2021.
- ^ "Room for a Moderate Democrat in 2022 U.S. Senate Primary". Kentucky Fried Politics. July 9, 2021. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
- ^ a b Breon Martin (May 2, 2021). "US Sen. Bernie Sanders holds rally with Charles Booker in Louisville". WDRB.
- ^ a b Morgan Watkins (July 26, 2021). "Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Charles Booker in bid for Rand Paul's Senate seat". Courier Journal.
- ^ a b "Rep. John Yarmuth backs Charles Booker in his bid to unseat Sen. Rand Paul". The Courier-Journal. November 11, 2021. Retrieved November 11, 2021.
- ^ a b c d "Charles Booker picks up major union endorsement in run for U.S. Senate". WLKY. July 21, 2021. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
- ^ a b Craig, Berry (March 4, 2022). "State AFL-CIO backs Booker, McGarvey". Forward Kentucky. Retrieved March 8, 2022.
- ^ a b "Our Recommended Candidates". educationvotes.nea.org. National Education Association.
- ^ a b "BNC Endorses Charles Booker!". Brand New Congress. Archived from the original on August 4, 2021. Retrieved August 4, 2021.
- ^ a b Simpson, Yvette (July 1, 2021). "Democracy for America : DFA backs Charles Booker for 2022 Senate rematch in Kentucky". democracyforamerica.com. Democracy for America.
- ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". indivisible.org. Indivisible. September 21, 2018. Retrieved May 20, 2022.
- ^ a b "LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
- ^ a b "Endorsements". March On. December 6, 2021.
- ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- ^ a b "Sunrise Movement endorses progressive Democrats Summer Lee, Nida Allam and Erica Smith for Congress". March 24, 2022. Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
- ^ a b "Our Candidates". Working Families Party.
- ^ a b Scott Recker (October 15, 2021). "Civil Rights Attorney Ben Crump Endorses Charles Booker For Senate". LEO Weekly.
- ^ Selleck, Stacey (September 28, 2015). "Rand Paul Signs U.S. Term Limits Pledge - U.S. Term Limits". Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Sen. Rand Paul officially files for re-election". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ Willis, Derek (August 12, 2015). "Votes Against Party by Rand Paul (R-Ky.)". ProPublica. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Rand Paul on the Issues". www.ontheissues.org. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ Sonka, Joe. "Charles Booker makes it official, announces run for US Senate seat held by Rand Paul". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Charles Booker on the Issues". www.ontheissues.org. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Stand up for Kentucky Coal Miners". Charles Booker For U.S. Senate. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ Watkins, Morgan. "Mason-Dixon poll: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is in good shape for reelection next year". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "2022 Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Booker | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "Rand Paul declines to debate Charles Booker on KET". Louisville Public Media. September 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
- ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- ^ "Kentucky Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ "The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast". The Economist. September 18, 2022. Retrieved September 18, 2022.
- ^ Kobin, Bill (July 15, 2022). "Biden Drops Plan to Name Anti-Abortion Lawyer Backed by McConnell as Judge". The New York Times. Retrieved July 16, 2022.
Mr. McConnell said he backed Mr. Paul's re-election bid this year.
- ^ "Paul and Barr speak at Republican 'Boots and Bluegrass' event". www.richmondregister.com. October 24, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ "Senator Rand Paul, Ag. Commissioner Ryan Quarles visit Hopkinsville". whopam.com. October 1, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f "DR. RAND PAUL RECEIVES ENDORSEMENT FROM OWENSBORO AREA SHERIFFS, RELEASES AD ON DEFENDING LAW ENFORCEMENT". randpaul.com. October 11, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Rand Paul's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 11, 2022.
- ^ "CCAGW PAC Endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Four House Candidates". finance.yahoo.com. October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ Storm, Nick (September 12, 2022). "Rand Paul Endorsed by KY Fraternal Order of Police". www.kentuckyfried.com. Retrieved September 13, 2022.
- ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Kentucky". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ "Charles Booker's primary win was historic. But his Senate run against Rand Paul faces a tough road ahead". May 23, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e Storm, Nick (September 1, 2022). "Charles Booker Endorsed by Gov. Beshear & Former KY Governors". www.kentuckyfried.com.
- ^ "The Herald-Leader endorses Charles Booker for Senate". amp.kentucky.com. October 21, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Charles Booker's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ "LegalizeKY".
- ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Charles Booker for U.S. Senate in Kentucky". NARAL Pro-Choice America. August 23, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
- ^ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
- ^ "November 8, 2022 - Official 2022 General Election Results" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky State Board of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 24, 2022. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
- ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
External links
- Official campaign websites